Review of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3184 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.3157.

Amid a lack of significant market developments, the British pound is showing clear weakness against the U.S. dollar today. The GBP/USD pair continues its downward movement, losing ground under the influence of various factors to which the market is reacting in the absence of fresh economic data.

The economic calendar becomes more eventful later in the day. During the U.S. session, two key indicators are scheduled for release: the U.S. current account balance and new home sales data. These figures may provide insight into the country's external trade dynamics and the condition of one of the most important sectors of the U.S. economy—the housing and construction market.

The current account balance is a comprehensive indicator that reflects all of a country's international transactions. Its dynamics help assess whether the country is earning more from or spending more on the rest of the world. Meanwhile, new home sales are one of the leading indicators of the health of the construction sector and, by extension, the broader economy. Rising home sales signal stronger consumer confidence, which is positive for the U.S. dollar and could allow it to continue strengthening against the British pound.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry level of 1.3180 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3215 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3215, I plan to close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from that level. A strong rally in the pound is unlikely today.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3149 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3180 and 1.3215 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3149 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3115, where I plan to close short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point move. Pressure on the pound is expected to remain in place today.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3180 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3149 and 1.3115 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important:

Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you trade large volumes without applying proper money management principles.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.