Britská libra posílila vůči americkému dolaru a dosáhla 1,3735 USD, což je nejvyšší úroveň od října 2021.
Údaje z 18. června, které naznačují přetrvávající inflační prostředí v zemi, od té doby posílily libru o 2,4 %.
The EUR/USD currency pair once again showed very weak movements. Perhaps the most interesting movements occurred at night when the pair fell by 30 pips at the market open. This was due to another violation of the ceasefire between Iran and the US over the weekend, and on Monday night, Donald Trump referred to Tehran's proposal for ending the war as unacceptable. Consequently, the market immediately began anticipating a resumption of war, which helped the dollar. However, the dollar's celebration was short-lived. As mentioned earlier, the geopolitical factor will no longer provide the US currency with such strong support as before. This factor has already been priced in, and Tehran and Washington have agreed to continue negotiations, so the war remains on hold. Therefore, during the day, the Euro somewhat easily recovered but continued to trade more sideways than upward. The upward trend on the hourly timeframe remains intact, so we expect only growth from the Euro in the short term.
On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal was formed on Monday. During the European trading session, the price bounced off the 1.1745-1.1754 area, allowing beginner traders to open long positions. Throughout the day, the price rose by 15-20 pips, which beginners could easily pocket.
On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend remains, and the Euro is finally starting to turn upward. The rise of the American currency has ceased, as the conflict in the Middle East is in a "quiet mode," but the European currency is also not in a hurry to rise, as negotiations are progressing very slowly, there is no official information, and both sides regularly violate the terms of the ceasefire.
On Tuesday, beginner traders may open short positions with a target of 1.1655-1.1666 if the price consolidates below the 1.1745-1.1754 area. New buy trades can be considered upon a bounce from the 1.1745-1.1754 area, targeting 1.1830-1.1837.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, and 1.1899-1.1908. On Tuesday, the Eurozone and Germany will publish the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, a secondary indicator, and in the US, reports on April inflation will be released. However, traders should be prepared for the possibility that the market may also ignore this report.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.
Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.
MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are key to long-term trading success.
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