S&P 500 and Nasdaq post gains, but futures resume losses

Yesterday, equity indices finished the day mostly higher: the S&P 500 rose by 1.05%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.64%, and the Dow Jones added 0.69%. However, futures on the major indices are now trading lower as markets were rattled by a lack of progress in US–Iran talks, which increased geopolitical uncertainty.

Against that backdrop, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and reports of several commercial vessels seized en route supported crude prices and weighed on investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 0.6%: decliners outnumbered advancers roughly three to one, and rising oil prices pushed down growth expectations. Follow the link for more details.

Investors remain bullish on S&P 500 and Nasdaq

The market seems to have "priced it all in": if the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are setting fresh highs, investors evidently expect a favorable outcome. Despite the collapse of US–Iran talks, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and elevated oil prices, investors are buying the dips. The Middle East drama is not over, but market participants appear to believe the worst is behind us: the ceasefire is being extended, and Trump says he does not plan to return to bombing.

As for oil and recession risks, those threats have been softened: supply shortfalls are not one-for-one, while high prices, releases from strategic reserves, alternative logistics routes, and re-routing of tanker cargoes are all cushioning the impact. Against that backdrop, attention is shifting back to corporate earnings and technology. After a lull, interest in AI has returned, and among S&P 500 companies that have already reported Q1 results, roughly 80% beat earnings expectations. Follow the link for more details.

Trump highlights naval blockade of Iranian ports as key pressure tool

Donald Trump has shifted the emphasis in the Iran discussion. According to himm Washington will not push talks into a "hard window" and will wait for a truly advantageous outcome. At the same time, he argued that pressure on Iranian ports via a naval blockade is, in his view, more effective than kinetic strikes.

Meanwhile, the situation at sea remains explosive: US interceptions of tankers, IRGC detentions of vessels, and promises of "surprises" have increased the risk of mines. Clearing the strait could take months, effectively freezing a key oil route through summer 2026. There has been no progress on deblocking. The world is losing millions of barrels of oil and a significant share of LNG every day. Therefore, early optimism about peace initiatives looks like more of a media effect. Follow the link for more details.