Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1580 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move above the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose by more than 20 pips.

As it was announced, the US government resumed operations yesterday after Donald Trump signed the H.R. 5371 bill. However, the US dollar's reaction to this event was minimal since the market had largely anticipated this outcome. The apparent stability of the currency, despite political turbulence, is explained by the good state of the US economy. Nevertheless, potential risks should not be ignored. Ongoing political conflicts and the rising US national debt erode confidence in the dollar. In the medium term, if political uncertainty is not resolved, the currency may face serious problems.

For today, figures on changes in industrial production in the Eurozone and the European Central Bank's economic bulletin are expected. These data typically have a certain impact on the currency market, particularly on the euro. Investors and analysts will closely examine the industrial production figures to assess the state of the Eurozone economy and its ability to recover from recent shocks. Strong growth in industrial production may indicate a robust economic recovery, which in turn could strengthen the euro. Conversely, weak figures could raise concerns about an economic slowdown and weaken the currency.

The ECB's economic bulletin is also an important source of information on the Bank's views of the current economic situation and its future monetary policy. The bulletin will cover the ECB's latest economic forecasts, assessments of inflationary pressures, and plans for interest rates. Any unexpected statements or hints of policy changes could cause volatility in financial markets.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros at around 1.1593 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1619. At 1.1619, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can be anticipated following the release of positive data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1578 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposing levels of 1.1593 and 1.1619.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the 1.1578 level (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be 1.1552, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips from that level). Pressure on the pair will return if the data are weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1593 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to the opposing levels of 1.1578 and 1.1552.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.