The main events by the morning: April 25

• The real risk of nuclear war: India and Pakistan on the verge of collision. India has found evidence of the involvement of Pakistan's special services in the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir (which occurred on Tuesday, killing 27 people). The country has suspended the issuance of visas to Pakistanis, is expelling diplomats, has closed the border and blocked the waters of the Indus River, and Pakistan has completely stopped trade with India, closed its airspace to any Indian aircraft and banned the entry of Indian advisers to the Prime Minister.

• China may suspend 125% duties on a number of imported goods from the United States. The Chinese authorities are considering the possibility of canceling additional fees for medical equipment and certain industrial chemicals such as ethane, as well as aircraft leasing.

• The longest recession in post-war history: the German economy will grow by 0% by the end of this year. The government has revised its forecast for GDP growth from 0.3% to 0%. The IMF presented a similar forecast, updating it to take into account Trump's duties. The German economy has not grown for 3 years: -0.3% in 2023, -0.2% in 2024 and a projected 0% in 2025. The forecast for 2026 is an increase of 1%.

• The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is likely to keep the key rate at 21% per annum. The decision on the key rate will be made by the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia today, April 25. According to the expectations of most experts, the rate will remain at 21% per annum, and the signal will be softened from moderately hard to neutral. In March, the Central Bank kept the rate at 21% per annum, indicating that it could raise it if disinflation did not achieve the 4% inflation target. 

• Moscow is ready to conclude a deal on Ukraine, but there are «certain elements» that need to be finalized. According to Foreign Minister Lavrov, Russia actively maintains a dialogue with the United States on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. He also noted that Trump is probably the only world leader who understands the need to address the root causes of the crisis in Ukraine.