The Bank of England is considering a fourfold interest rate cut in 2025 as inflation slows faster than expected. In the November forecast, the regulator has already laid out such a scenario in order to return inflation to the target of 2%. After the statement by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, the market reacted with an increase in expectations of monetary policy easing. At the moment, investors estimate the probability of a rate cut of 83 basis points by the end of 2025, which implies three or four downgrades. Risks of a trade war and inflation The Bank of England also takes into account external risks, including a possible escalation of the trade war if the United States imposes new tariffs after Donald Trump's election victory. This may complicate UK inflation forecasts, as the impact of trade barriers on prices will depend on the response of other countries. Market impact and warning of deregulation An additional factor influencing inflation will be the UK's October budget. Bailey stressed that excessive financial deregulation can lead to risks, but should not hinder economic growth.
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