Does Nord Stream-2 have a future?

Against the background of acute geopolitical tensions in Europe, the future of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline is now in great doubt, say energy analysts. 

The 1,234 km (2,468 km) offshore gas pipeline was designed to double gas supplies between Russia and Germany. However, in November last year, the German energy regulator suspended the certification process of the gas pipeline, and in February, with the beginning of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, it froze it altogether.

Analysts note that the large-scale geopolitical crisis has put an end to any joint projects and business partnership between Russia and the West. And Nord Stream-2, worth $11 billion, became one of the first victims of anti-Russian sanctions. 

Moreover, the European Union has stated that by the end of 2022 it is going to reduce the import of Russian gas by two–thirds, and by 2030 it is going to completely end dependence on Russian imports of fossil fuels. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the termination of gas exports to «unfriendly» countries if gas payments are not made in rubles. The main EU countries responded to this demand with a refusal. 

Many analysts and politicians doubt the likelihood of the resumption of the gas pipeline. It is obvious that the future fate of the Nord Stream-2 will depend on how the Ukrainian crisis ends, and who will ultimately dictate the conditions.

There are assumptions that the Nord Stream-2 will be able to be used for the transportation of hydrogen in the future, and Russia will be a potential supplier. However, this method of using the gas pipeline will depend on the decision of Germany itself – whether it will eventually want to revive energy relations with Russia using next-generation fuel under the flag of decarbonization.