What is the risk of the Ukrainian crisis for investors?

Since the beginning of 2022, the main «headache» of investors has been the return of volatility to the market: the oil market is showing growth to multi-year highs, as well as gold, stocks and indices are rising and falling, and the crypto market has reached a minimum where bitcoin can no longer serve as a reliable «safe haven asset». 

At the same time, investors have been worried about another news in recent days – Russia's invasion of the territory of Ukraine, which led to a fall in the ruble exchange rate and the suspension of the Moscow Stock Exchange. Analysts are closely monitoring the development of events and advise only one thing so far – not to give in to panic. 

«Although Russia and Ukraine will dominate the news in the near future, they will not determine the medium– and long-term direction of the market,» says Tom Essey, founder of the newsletter The Sevens Report.

The United States and its allies have so far announced a modest first stage of sanctions, to which the market reacted rather restrainedly. However, in the event of an escalation of the conflict, consumers and companies may refrain from loans, which will undoubtedly hit the banks. 

In addition, the shares of the tourism sector and the leisure sector may suffer, since during global crises, customers are usually not interested in travel and entertainment.

Analysts believe that US Treasury bonds and Japanese government bonds may become the most resistant to the shock. Experts also suggest that the investment portfolio is likely to suffer due to a possible tightening of the policy of central banks and a slowdown in economic growth, and not because of the Ukrainian conflict itself.