Fitch downgrades US rating to «AA+»

The international rating agency Fitch has lowered the long-term default probability rating for the United States to «AA+» from «AAA», due to the deterioration of budget indicators and the growth of public debt.

Analysts of the agency note that the downgrade of the US rating occurred against the background of the expected deterioration of fiscal indicators in the next three years, high and growing public debt, as well as a decrease in the level of managerial efficiency compared to other countries with «AA» and «AAA» ratings over the past two decades. Prior to that, the US rating was on the list for revision with a «negative» outlook. 

According to Fitch forecasts, in 2023 the US budget deficit will increase to 6.3% of GDP from 3.7% in the previous year due to a reduction in federal budget revenues, additional expenses and increased debt servicing costs in the face of rising interest rates. In 2024, the deficit will reach 6.6% of GDP, and in 2025 – 6.9%.

The total US national debt is expected to reach 112.9% of GDP this year, which is below the peak of 122.3% of GDP in 2020 during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, but significantly higher than the level of 2019 before the pandemic, when debt was 100.1% of GDP. 

Fitch predicts that by 2025 this figure will reach 118.4% of GDP, which is two and a half times higher than the average for countries with an «AAA» rating.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen disagreed with Fitch's decision, calling it «unfounded and based on outdated information.» And White House press secretary Karin Jean-Pierre noted that the decision to lower the US rating at a time when President Joe Biden is providing the fastest recovery among the world's leading economies is «contrary to common sense.»