The test of the price at 1.1780 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair only rose by 10 pips before stalling.
The morning of today's trading session promises to be a turning point for European financial markets, with a busy agenda of macroeconomic releases. Given the geopolitical stalemate in the Middle East, all attention will now shift to fundamental data. According to forecasts, key consumer price index data is expected to be released in the first half of the day, which is unlikely to differ significantly from its preliminary value.
Alongside the inflation data, a report from the respected ZEW research center is expected to be published. Two important indicators reflecting expectations and assessments of the current economic situation in Germany will be presented. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index aims to show how German entrepreneurs assess the future prospects of the economy. The Current Situation Index from ZEW will also be significant, as it will allow an evaluation of the current economic environment in Germany—especially after the events in the Middle East and the sharp rise in energy prices. A comparison of these two indicators will provide a more comprehensive view of the economic cycle phase in which the country currently finds itself.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros at an entry price around 1.1766 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1795. At point 1.1795, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect the euro to rise after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1754 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1766 and 1.1795.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the level of 1.1754 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be 1.1726, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair could return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1766 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1754 and 1.1726.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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