Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1571 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.1618.

Yesterday's statements by U.S. President Donald Trump about the imminent end of a potential conflict with Iran had a noticeable impact on global financial markets. His words were perceived by investors as a signal to reduce geopolitical tension, which traditionally provokes corrections in markets associated with safe havens. The reaction was immediate: the American currency began to feel pressure, which manifested in the dollar's selling off against major world currencies. Alongside the weakening of the dollar, risk markets saw a revival. The European currency demonstrated significant growth, recovering as concerns about potential global economic shocks diminished.

Today, market participants will focus on trade balance data from Germany and France. These key indicators of economic activity for the Eurozone's largest economies will allow for an assessment of their external trade operations. Concurrently, the meeting of the European Union's finance ministers will take place. It is expected that the main topics of discussion will be the current economic state of the bloc in light of the situation in the Middle East. The consequences of the Middle Eastern conflict for global energy markets and potential threats to the stability of the European economy will undoubtedly require detailed analysis and a unified stance among policymakers. The combination of macroeconomic data and political consultations will create conditions for increased market volatility.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1631 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1682. At the level of 1.1682, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth for the euro today can only be anticipated after strong German data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1605 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards the opposite levels of 1.1631 and 1.1682 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1605 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1565, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today, only with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1631 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1605 and 1.1565 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.