Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Monday, not even secondary ones. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to throughout the day, and volatility may be weak again.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is also nothing notable among the fundamental events on Monday. Representatives of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Committee continue to keep silent, as required by Kevin Warsh's new public communication strategy, so no "fresh" information from the Fed is forthcoming. However, we do not expect an increase in the Fed's key rate in September. The European Central Bank may undertake its second monetary tightening this fall, as the Bank of England does, amid rising inflation.

The geopolitical backdrop still leaves much to be desired. The U.S. and Iran are not currently engaged in any negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, and the Yemeni Houthis are maintaining a blockade of Saudi Arabia. Tehran has put forward a list of demands to Washington necessary for the reopening of Hormuz, which Donald Trump will not agree to under any circumstances. Iran has also warned Washington that if the blockade of the strait is not lifted, it will begin a "cleansing" of the strait with its own forces. Trump has decided to carry out an unprecedented economic operation to destroy Iran and threatens to impose sanctions on any countries that interact with Iran in any way. Iran has responded with threats to close other straits and routes if other nations join in exerting pressure on Washington.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, currency pairs may trade somewhat sluggishly, as there is no important news today. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1655-1.1665, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3631-1.3641. Overall, we expect both the euro and the pound to strengthen further against the U.S. dollar, and only geopolitical factors or a technical necessity for correction could hinder this upward momentum.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is assessed by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.

Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.