Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3342 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying pounds. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.3381.

The reduction in the number of jobs in the U.S. non-farm sector by 92,000 and the increase in unemployment to 4.4% in February are bad signs for the American economy. All this put pressure on the U.S. dollar last Friday. These figures, significantly worse than analysts' expectations, were a cold shower for traders who had hoped for further strengthening of the American currency following strong January employment reports. The market interpreted this data as a clear signal of a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, which inevitably affects the dollar's attractiveness as an investment tool. The rise in unemployment to 4.4% also indicates that the U.S. labor market is less flexible and robust than previously thought.

In the absence of UK data today, the GBP/USD pair is most likely to remain within established boundaries, with a high probability of further decline. The lack of fresh economic information from London leaves traders without key indicators to assess the current state and future prospects of the British economy. Under such circumstances, market participants are forced to rely on technical models that point entirely toward a bearish market.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy pounds when the price reaches around 1.3335 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3381 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3381, I plan to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point). Expecting growth for the pound today is unlikely. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy pounds today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3310 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards the opposite levels of 1.3335 and 1.3381 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell pounds after breaking the 1.3310 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3268 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from the level). Pound sellers may reveal themselves at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell pounds today if the price tests 1.3335 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.3310 and 1.3268 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.