Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1565 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's bearish potential. For this reason, I did not sell euros and missed a good downward movement of the pair.

Yesterday's publication of the FOMC minutes from the October meeting indicated that most Federal Reserve officials lean towards keeping interest rates unchanged by the end of this year. Overall, the divergence of opinions within the Fed suggests ongoing uncertainty regarding future monetary policy. It is essential to continue monitoring new statements from Fed representatives and incoming data to evaluate potential scenarios and adjust decisions as conditions change. However, the likelihood of further dollar strengthening remains, especially if the Fed continues its hawkish rhetoric.

Upcoming data includes the German Producer Price Index, the Bundesbank's monthly report, and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index. The dynamics of producer prices in Germany will reflect inflation processes in the production sector. Analyzing this index will help understand how much company profits are currently constrained and how this may affect the prices of goods and services for the population. This indicator is closely studied by both the European Central Bank and traders to forecast inflation trends in the Eurozone. The regular report from the Bundesbank traditionally includes an in-depth analysis of the current economic situation in Germany, key forecasts, and an assessment of potential risks. This document is a vital information resource for economists and analysts, enabling a comprehensive understanding of the leading economy in the Eurozone. The commentary on growth prospects, inflation, and monetary policy is particularly significant.

The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index serves as a key indicator of consumer sentiment. It reflects consumers' expectations about the future state of the economy, employment, and personal financial conditions. An increase in this index will strengthen the euro, while a weak reading may place pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Regarding intraday strategies, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios:

• Scenario #1: A buy opportunity may arise if the price reaches around 1.1597 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1625. At 1.1625, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35-pip move from the entry point. Growth in the euro can be anticipated only after positive reports. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1578 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1597 and 1.1625.

Sell Scenarios:

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1578 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1546, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (targeting a 20-25-pip move against the level). Pressure on the pair will return once critical support levels are breached. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1597 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1578 and 1.1546.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.