Powell and the Fed remain cautious: they are not expecting a rate cut until the fall

The Fed probably won't cut interest rates at the next meetings in July and September, analysts say. Most representatives of the regulator, led by Jerome Powell, adhere to a wait-and-see attitude, counting on the stability of economic data.

According to experts, inflation will remain stable in the summer with signs of price pressure, and the labor market will show a slowdown in employment growth, but without critical changes requiring urgent decisions by the Fed.

Jerome Powell in Congress noted that it was premature to lower rates, given the possible impact of duties imposed by the Trump administration on inflation. Although the U.S. economy slowed in the first quarter and the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased, inflation remains moderate. 

However, not all Fed officials support this caution. Board of Governors members Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller allowed for a rate cut in July if inflation did not show stronger growth. Nevertheless, the markets generally expect such a decision no earlier than September.