Monday, August 16 As it usually happens on Mondays, the macroeconomic calendar is absolutely empty today. Therefore, market participants will have the opportunity to assess the current state of affairs and make predictions about how events may develop over the next few days. Tuesday, August 17 Tuesday will start with data on employment in the UK, which may well provide significant support to the pound, as the number of applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced by 180 thousand. And this is a lot for the UK. The average wage level in the country should also rise. Statistics from the eurozone (the second estimate of GDP in the second quarter) are likely to be ignored, since the expected indicator should fully coincide with the first estimate (economic growth of 13.7%). The market has already taken this data into account in the value of the single European currency. The biggest interest on Tuesday will be the US data. In particular, these are retail sales, the growth rates of which may slow down from 18.0% to 11.5%. The growth rate of industrial production should slow down from 9.8% to 7.2%. However, these data are still distorted by the low base effect, so it is still problematic to draw any far-reaching conclusions based on them. Wednesday, August 18 Wednesday will be the most interesting day of the week. Everything will start with the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the refinancing rate: the regulator may raise the rate from 0.25% to 0.50%. And this will inevitably lead to an increase in the Australian dollar. Next, you should pay attention to inflation in the UK, which should decline from 2.5% to 2.4%. This means that inflationary risks in the UK are extremely low, in contrast to the United States. Therefore, the pound will receive an excellent stimulus for growth and, through the dollar index, will pull other currencies along with it. Inflation statistics in the euro area may again be ignored, despite the growth from 1.9% to 2.2%. And all because the market has taken this fact into account for a long time. After the opening of the American trading session, the US dollar may strengthen its position against the Canadian dollar. The reason for this will be the rise in inflation from 3.1% to 3.3% in Canada itself. Thursday, August 19 On Thursday, the Australian dollar will have to retreat somewhat under the pressure of data on the labor market, the situation on which should deteriorate somewhat. Analysts predict an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.9% to 5.0%. In the US, meanwhile, a further steady decline in the number of applications for unemployment benefits is expected. The number of initial applications may decrease by 15 thousand, and repeated ones - by another 116 thousand. This will be the reason for the growth of the dollar on Thursday. You should also pay attention to the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - the indicator is also expected to grow here. Friday, August 20 Friday will start with a strong decline in the yen, as the rise in consumer prices by 0.2% should be replaced by a decline of -0.1%. And while there are still strong concerns in the markets about the unwinding of an inflationary spiral, deflation scares investors much more. The British pound and the Canadian dollar will also come under pressure. The reason for this is retail sales, the growth rates of which should noticeably decline: in the UK from 9.7% to 6.5%, and in Canada from 24.6% to 14.0%.
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