Europe faces an unplanned gas shortage

Gas prices in Europe remain at an all-time high, although gas prices generally fall in summer. The reason for this was the lack of fuel and the impossibility of competition from coal.

In particular, spot prices at the largest hub, TTF, consistently exceeded $300 per thousand cubic meters throughout May and did not retreat from the highs in the summer. Yesterday's gas price was marked at $349 per thousand cubic meters. A similar situation on the European gas market was observed only in 2011-2014. Then this was due to high oil prices (consistently above $100 per barrel).

The current deficit was caused by supply constraints from Norway and Russia, the main gas suppliers. In Norway, preventive work has begun on the production infrastructure, and the Russian Gazprom refuses in principle to increase the volume of supplies. In May, gas supplies decreased by 29% (7 million tons), as gas carriers are sent to Asian markets due to a higher premium. From January to May, Europe purchased only 37 million tons of LNG, which accounted for 23% of world production. A year ago there were 45 million tons and 29%.

At the same time, the supply of coal, which usually replaces gas in the energy sector, does not increase. Firstly, the price of coal has risen (more than 160% per year), and secondly, the fees for its use have sharply increased in Europe. Considering all of the above, analysts do not expect the picture of gas shortages in Europe to change before the end of this year.