Morgan Stanley expects Fed rate cut by 300 bps by the end of 2025

Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the US Federal Reserve will start lowering the benchmark interest rate in June 2024, reducing it by 300 basis points by the end of 2025. 

This forecast is based on the assessment of a group of experts led by Helen Centner, the bank's chief economist in the United States. The Fed is expected to cut the rate by 25 basis points in June 2024, continuing the same pattern of reduction at subsequent meetings, reaching the level of 2.375% by the end of 2025.

Experts point out that the long-term persistence of high rates will restrain economic development, limiting the positive impact of budget expenditures. They assume that the Fed will be able to provide a «soft landing» for the economy, although the risk of recession will still remain due to a slowdown in economic growth.

Meanwhile, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict the beginning of a rate cut only in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a decrease of 175 basis points by mid-2026, which will reduce the rate to the level of 3.5-3.75%. The median forecast of the Fed itself suggests a base rate of 3.9% by the end of 2025. 

Morgan Stanley also assumes that the unemployment rate in the United States will reach 4.3% in 2025, GDP will increase by 1.4%, and core inflation will be 2.1%. According to Goldman Sachs forecasts, unemployment is expected at 3.6%, US GDP growth at 1.9% and core inflation at 2.2%.