UBS: oil prices will recover to $125 this year

UBS bank experts have presented a forecast according to which the price of Brent oil may recover to the level of $125 per barrel by the end of this year.

Analysts are confident that despite the fact that Brent has declined by 25% since mid-June due to fears of a recession, limited global oil reserves will lead to an increase in hydrocarbon prices. Two months ago, oil quotes were located near the level of $125 per barrel, today Brent is trading at $96 per barrel.

In addition to concerns about a possible recession in the United States and China, oil prices are being pressured by the risks of an increase in oil exports from Russia and OPEC member countries, as well as progress in nuclear negotiations with Iran, which could lead to more oil on the market. 

However, despite all these factors, UBS still believes that the current decline in oil prices does not fully take into account the limitation of global supply, and by the end of the year the price will be able to recover to $125 per barrel.

As you know, OPEC and its allies agreed to increase production by only 100 thousand barrels per day in September, which is one of the lowest rates in the history of the organization. According to the alliance itself, the actual increase in production in September will be only one third of the agreed increase in supply volumes. 

Moreover, European countries have agreed to reduce imports of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia by almost 3 million barrels per day by the end of 2022. High prices for coal and natural gas will also contribute to the increase in the cost of oil, as utility companies begin to switch from expensive fuels to cheaper ones for electricity production.