The Beige Book: US economy is constrained by the possibility of a recession

Last night, the Beige Book was published – a summary of the comments of the US Federal Reserve on the current economic situation in 12 districts of the country. 

According to the report, the US economy has generally grown moderately since mid-May, but was restrained by some concern about the increased risk of recession. In particular, several counties reported growing signs of slowing demand, lower consumer spending and rising prices for food and gasoline.

Manufacturing activity in almost all districts was mixed, as supply chain disruptions and labor shortages continue to hinder production. 

As in the previous report, the outlook for future economic growth was mostly negative, with further weakening of demand expected over the next 6-12 months.

Labor market

Employment in the United States grew at a moderate pace, and almost all counties noted a moderate improvement in the situation with labor availability amid weakening demand for workers (especially in manufacturing and construction). Wage growth was recorded in most districts. 

Inflation

A significant increase in consumer prices was noted in all districts. The cost of food, goods and energy (especially fuel) remains at historically high levels. In general, the majority of respondents expect that price pressure will continue at least until the end of the year.