OPEC wants to exclude Russia from the energy deal – rumors or a clear plan?

OPEC fears that Western sanctions will negatively affect Russia's potential in terms of oil production. In this regard, some cartel members are working on the issue of possible suspension of Russia's participation in the OPEC+ deal.

Analysts suggest that the embargo and other sanctions could significantly undermine Moscow's ability to produce more oil. It is predicted that oil production in Russia will decrease by about 8% in 2022.

However, no concrete steps have been taken to increase production beyond the previously planned or to exclude Russia from the deal at the moment. Moreover, there is no practice in OPEC of excluding a country from the alliance only because of non-fulfillment of production conditions, and many countries have not been able to fulfill the plan for months.

Recall that Russia (one of the three largest oil producers in the world) in 2021 agreed with OPEC and nine non-OPEC countries on a controlled joint increase in crude oil production. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for June 2 – the participants will decide on an increase in production in July.