NZ’s Negative Outlook on Business Confidence

The business confidence survey of New Zealand signifies a slowdown in the economy that could lead to the possibility for the RBNZ to reduce the official cash rate.

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr is anticipated to maintain the OCR at 1.75 percent at tomorrow’s review. Yet today, the ANZ Business Outlook reported a drop in the confidence level back to the post-election lows. It added more doubt to the growth outlook, as well as, the course of interest rates.

There are various possible reasons that induce the decline in confidence, including uncertainty of the policies in the new government, global trade fiction and effect of Mycoplasma Bovis cattle disease.

The ASB anticipates slow progress in business confidence in the upcoming months, given the ubiquitous support to the NZ economy.

Yet, the longer business confidence continues to be low and more questions will be raised in the economic outlook. "An OCR cut cannot be ruled out if this persists.", they added.

The New Zealand kiwi decline based on the survey results about the low growth situation.

Firms surveyed on their expectations on business condition representing 39% of businesses in total believe to have a gloomy outlook in the next 12 months, as told by the ANZ Senior Economist, Liz Kendall.

Since June of 2017, business confidence is headed for a downturn given strong “headwind” of the economy, she added.

She described it as “expansionary” amid the steadfast consumer confidence giving support but the economy may continue to gently lose steam in the next months despite being substantiated by fiscal stimulus and high commodity prices.