Experts: the US is facing a difficult period

Despite the fact that the US Federal Reserve has already carried out 10 interest rate hikes (which is 500 basis points since March 2022), the economy has not yet felt the full impact of these measures.

As the Fed approaches its peak rate, policymakers, consumers and businesses are increasingly finding themselves in an uncertain state. On the one hand, they should be grateful for the «soft landing» of the economy, which has already begun, but on the other hand, they have not yet fully felt all the consequences of the tightening cycle.

In its fight against inflation, the Fed tried to prevent a softening of financial conditions in the market, but the market itself expected that the regulator would begin to quickly and sharply reduce the rate in order to cope with the delayed effect of delaying tightening. 

At the same time, the latest report showed a sharp decline in consumer price inflation in the country to 3% year-on-year, which indicates that the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle is approaching. Experts note that it takes from 18 to 24 months for changes in monetary policy to affect the real economy. However, a 500 basis point rate hike since March 2022 has so far had no noticeable impact. In practice, this can have a strong impact on employment and a slowdown in GDP growth. 

Nevertheless, if we consider all the measures taken by the Fed to be mainly precautionary, then the approach of the inflation rate to the target of 2% and the reduction of unemployment to a 50-year low can be considered quite successful results.