On Tuesday, GBP/USD remains under pressure. However, further downside is limited as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach and avoid opening aggressive positions ahead of events that could significantly affect financial
On Tuesday, GBP/USD remains under pressure. However, further downside is limited as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach and avoid opening aggressive positions ahead of events that could significantly affect financial markets this week.
On Wednesday, UK Finance Minister John Healey will present his first autumn budget. Against the backdrop of Prime Minister Andy Burnham's ambitious plans to increase public spending, the main focus will be on maintaining stability in the bond market. Market participants will closely examine the proposed spending measures and their financing mechanisms to assess whether a negative reaction from the UK government bond market can be avoided. The budget announcements will be an important factor for the pound and could trigger a significant move in GBP/USD.
At the same time, investors are awaiting the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday. Market participants are almost certain that the US central bank will leave interest rates unchanged. Therefore, the main focus will be on the accompanying statement and remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh during the post-meeting press conference. As no new economic projections will be published, traders will need to look for signals about the future path of monetary policy in the Fed's rhetoric. These comments could influence the US dollar and determine the direction of GBP/USD.
In addition, important US macroeconomic data will be released on Thursday, including the preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP growth and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
Expectations of another Fed rate hike in December, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainty, continue to support the US dollar. At the same time, expectations that the Bank of England may tighten monetary policy could limit the downside potential of GBP/USD.
Currently, GBP/USD is trading below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), located at 1.3390, as well as below the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA). This technical picture suggests that recovery attempts remain fragile, while the rebound from the October low faces significant resistance in the medium-term resistance zone.
The 200-day SMA is the first major barrier above the 100-day SMA. Further resistance levels to watch are 1.3470, followed by the psychological level of 1.3500 and the 1.3570 level.
On the other hand, the nearest support is located around the psychological level of 1.3300, followed by the 20-day SMA. A break below these levels could accelerate the decline toward the October low. However, as the oscillators remain neutral, the pair has yet to establish a clear direction.
RYCHLÉ ODKAZY