The EUR/USD currency pair showed a more familiar movement on Thursday, whereas a day earlier we thought something extraordinary had happened when the European currency gained several dozen pips. Of course, that is sarcasm. It may not be appropriate in the current circumstances, but the current rise of the US dollar only brings a smile.

In September–October 2026, trading on the currency market became surprisingly simple. If you are a trader, you buy the dollar every day and stay in profit. You don't need to analyze news flow, events, geopolitics, central banks' monetary policy, economic prospects, or market sentiment. You buy the dollar because it rises every day for any reason. Not just for any reason, but even ignoring reasons in favor of the European currency. If you are an analyst, journalist, or author, your work is reduced to the bare minimum too—saying or writing every day that the dollar is rising on stronger "hawkish" expectations for Federal Reserve policy or amid rising geopolitical tension. You confidently ignore all other events, news, and reports because they do not support the dollar. Thus, when you listen to various experts, the picture seems crystal clear. But once you start analyzing what is happening, you get the feeling that something is wrong.

Recall that for two weeks we have been saying the current fall of EUR/USD is completely illogical. More precisely, the dollar's rise is completely illogical, because the dollar is rising not only against the euro. Of course, no one feels better from recognizing the illogical movement. At the same time, we support trading the market when we at least understand what is happening. If the price literally flies in one direction for the fourth week in a row even after the market itself lowered the probability of Fed tightening in October, it is obvious that the reason for the dollar's rise is generally not Fed monetary policy. As for geopolitics and the so-called "rise in geopolitical tension," we hasten to remind you — the market stopped reacting to Middle East events back in the summer. And that is natural, because the dollar cannot keep gaining on the conflict between Iran and the US solely as a safety factor for investors.

The phrase "rise in risk/anti-risk sentiment" is the holy grail for analysts. With that phrase, you can explain absolutely any movement when there are no clear reasons. We want to remind you that the market is a sum of a huge number of participants — large banks, big corporations, funds, speculators, and retail traders trading through brokers. If some event points to a dollar decline, it does not mean all market participants should immediately rush to sell the dollar. It is important to understand when the market moves on fundamentals/macro/technicals and when it does not. The latter periods have their own specifics, and it is better to call things by their names. That makes everything simpler and clearer for everyone.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of October 2 is 65 pips and is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1169 and 1.1300 on Friday. The higher linear regression channel is directed upward, indicating an uptrend. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area three times and formed three "bullish" divergences, warning of the end of the illogical downtrend. However, the market is not reacting to anything right now.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1169

S3 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1292

R2 – 1.1353

R3 – 1.1414

Trade recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downward, but we still view the pair's decline as a correction before a new uptrend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitical events first, and then the Fed's "hawkish" stance, provided strong support to the US currency. When the price is below the moving average, consider short positions with targets of 1.1169 and 1.1108. Above the moving average line, long positions are relevant, with targets of 1.1414 and 1.1475.

Explanations for the illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed the same way, the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term tendency and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.
• Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) show the likely price channel the pair will trade in over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator — entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) — signals an imminent trend reversal in the opposite direction.