Trade review and trading tips for the European currency

The price test at 1.1696 coincided with the MACD indicator moving far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The dollar's decline stalled yesterday after some Republican senators criticized Donald Trump, who initiated criminal prosecution against Powell. This unexpected turn of events allowed the dollar to strengthen slightly after the sell-off earlier in the week. Investors seemed tired of the constant attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence, considering Trump's actions more a political maneuver than a real threat to the U.S. economy's stability. However, it is still too early to say the fuss is over. This morning, no economic data from the eurozone is expected. No public statements from European political figures are anticipated either, which may further strengthen dollar buyers' positions. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the dollar's long-term outlook remains uncertain. The growing discussion of a probable slowdown in the U.S. economy and an upcoming cycle of rate cuts is negatively affecting the American currency. In addition, political risks add instability to the market. Therefore, traders are advised to exercise caution. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mostly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought at around 1.1668 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1696. At 1.1696, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro on the rebound, expecting a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expect euro growth only within the channel. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1653 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward 1.1668 and 1.1696.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1653 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1633, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately on the rebound (expecting a 20–25-pip countermove from the level). Pressure on the pair may return quickly today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1668 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. One can expect a decline toward 1.1653 and 1.1633.

What is on the chart

• Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument
• Thick green line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further rise above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument
• Thick red line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones
• Important notes: Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to be out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
• Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market noise are a losing strategy for the intraday trader.