On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair made its third return to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1594. This third consecutive rebound from the level once again favored the U.S. dollar, leading to a slight decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1517. A consolidation of the pair above 1.1594 will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next resistance level at 1.1645–1.1656.

The wave pattern on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The new upward wave has not yet broken the previous peak, while the last downward wave broke the prior low — meaning the trend still remains bearish. Bullish traders are not taking advantage of the opportunities for an advance, while the bears continue to attack largely on enthusiasm alone, without any real informational support. To confirm the end of the bearish trend, the pair needs to rise above 1.1656 or form two consecutive bullish waves.

On Wednesday, the news background was quite weak, which explains the low trader activity. However, recall that on Monday, Donald Trump announced the imminent end of the "shutdown," as Republicans and Democrats in the Senate managed to reach a temporary agreement. Last night, Trump signed a law providing temporary funding until January 31, after the House of Representatives approved the bill following the Senate.

Trump called the end of the shutdown a "great day," but the dollar showed no joy in response. The issue is that a new shutdown could begin as early as February 1 if Democrats and Republicans fail to reach an agreement on extending and fully funding the Medicaid program. The Democrats' condition was clear: approving a temporary budget in exchange for negotiations on extending and maintaining social and medical program funding. Thus, the "shutdown" has only been paused to allow the government to resume operations.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the euro after forming a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator and consolidating above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. As a result, the upward movement may continue toward the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. A close below 1.1538 would favor the U.S. currency and a resumption of decline toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.1448. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. No new COT reports have been released for over a month. The sentiment among the Non-commercial group remains bullish — thanks largely to Donald Trump — and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 252,000, compared with 138,000 short positions — nearly a 2:1 ratio.

Also note the large number of green cells in the summary table, which indicate strong accumulation of long positions in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to rise, while interest in the dollar declines.

For 33 consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most influential factor for traders, as they could create numerous long-term structural problems for the U.S. economy. Despite the signing of several key trade agreements, many crucial economic indicators continue to show weakness.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Industrial Production Change (10:00 UTC)

The November 13 economic calendar includes only one entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment will be very weak, and only in the morning hours.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

At the moment, I do not recommend considering short positions, as the bears have already exceeded their targets by a wide margin. Buy positions could have been considered after a consolidation above 1.1517, targeting 1.1594 — this target has already been met.

New buy positions will become possible after a close above 1.1594, with targets at 1.1645–1.1656.

Fibonacci grids are constructed between 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.