Moody's: Tariff uncertainty increases default risks among companies

According to a Moody's report, the number of companies at high risk of default has reached an 11-month high due to deteriorating credit conditions amid trade tensions and US tariff policy. 

In the second quarter of 2025, 16 more companies were included in the list of the most vulnerable to default, increasing the total number to 241. These are mostly non-financial firms in the United States with a Caa1 rating or lower, or with a B3 rating, but with a negative outlook.

Moody's notes that US tariffs and global trade instability have increased pressure on business revenues and liquidity. In particular, Conair Holdings (cosmetics) and Power Stop (braking systems) received a junk rating due to the effects of high import duties.

There has also been an increase in the number of actual defaults — companies that left the high-risk list not because of an improved rating, but because of non-fulfillment of debt obligations. According to Moody's, there were four times as many such cases as there were improvements.

The agency emphasizes that the largest number of defaults is currently observed in the technology sector, but in the coming months, the greatest risks will pass to companies from the consumer sector.