Trade wars may affect LNG supplies from the United States to China

In 2024, U.S. LNG shipments to China increased by 63% in the first ten months compared to 2023, which placed the United States in fifth place among suppliers after Australia, Qatar, Russia and Malaysia. 

However, this positive dynamic may change if the new Trump administration comes into conflict with Beijing over trade relations.

If Washington continues to threaten to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing may respond by imposing duties on American gas. A similar scenario was observed during the previous trade war under Trump, when American gas exports to China declined sharply in 2019.

China can also use its gas purchases as a trade tool, promising to buy more fuel from the United States in an attempt to reduce the trade surplus.

At the same time, China continues to import sanctioned oil from Iran through alternative channels. In October, shipments through Malaysia reached record levels, although there has been no official direct import for more than two years.