JPMorgan forecasts 11% market growth despite recession

Analysts at JPMorgan investment bank said that the US stock market could grow by 11% over the next year, judging by the indicators of the unemployment benefit applications indicator.

In particular, when the number of applications for benefits grew by 10% or higher (than the prevailing 3-month average), the benchmark S&P 500 index recovered by 11% on average over the next 12 months. It is also worth considering that the labor market in the United States remains in good condition and quite stable. Moreover, the number of unemployment claims is still very small in the historical context.

Another factor in favor of market growth is the weakening of inflationary pressure. And this suggests that after a sharp increase in the US Federal Reserve interest rate in September, either a small rate hike will follow, or even a pause or reversal in monetary policy.

In addition, stable corporate income reports are a positive factor for the market.

Thus, due to all these factors, analysts advise investors not to rush to sell shares now, as the market is waiting for growth ahead.