Goldman Sachs analysts expect a recession in the UK in the IV quarter

Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect the UK economy to enter recession by the end of 2022. According to their expectations, the country's GDP will shrink by about 1% by the middle of next year. At the same time, the volume of the economy throughout 2023 is likely to decrease by 0.6%. Earlier, experts predicted the growth of the British economy by 1.1%.

Economists note that concern about the deterioration of living standards in the UK continues to grow amid the deepening energy crisis. It is expected that the level of real consumption will decrease significantly. 

In August, the Bank of England said that the country's economy would plunge into a recession that would last more than a year. Then the regulator raised the key rate by the maximum step in 27 years – by 50 bp at once, to 1.75% per annum.

Goldman Sachs expects the savings rate of British households to fall below the equilibrium level to a record low of 3.5% in the second quarter of 2023. Real disposable income will decrease by 2.9% and consumer spending by 1.4% by the end of next year.

However, economists doubt that the Bank of England will abandon further tightening of monetary policy. The central bank is expected to raise the rate by 50 bps at the September meeting. In addition, analysts do not rule out an increase in the rate by 25 bps in November and December. In this case, the UK's GDP could fall by 3.4% over the next year.