Russia intends to occupy 25% of the global coal market by 2050

Pyotr Bobylev, director of the Coal Industry Department of the Ministry of Energy, said that Russia expects to occupy a quarter of the global coal market by 2050. The country has every opportunity to become one of the world's leading coal exporters, but this requires that some other players leave the market. Currently, the market share of the Russian Federation is 18%.

A little earlier, the Ministry presented its forecast, calculated taking into account the EU embargo imposed on the import of coal from Russia. According to the forecast, coal production by the end of 2022 may decrease by 17% compared to the result of 2021, to 365.1 million tons. The decrease in exports may amount to 30%, up to 156 million tons.

Bobylev also noted that the desire of developed countries to achieve «green» electricity generation and zero emissions by 2050 will lead to the fact that coal consumption in European countries and in the United States will gradually decrease. But at the same time, coal, which is the cheapest of the fossil resources, will be more in demand in developing and poor countries. The main consumers will be China, India, Indonesia, South Africa.

Today it is difficult to say exactly how much Russia will export the physical volume of raw materials. It is likely that supplies will also decline following the fall in global coal consumption.

Analysts believe that the peak of coal consumption in the world will be in the period 2025-2040, followed by a sharp decline. And if countries continue to comply with the terms of the Paris Agreement, the use of coal in the world by 2050 may fall by 85-90% from the current level.