Inflation may force the Fed to raise the rate more than 4 times

Economists believe that the US Federal Reserve System will hold 4 interest rate hikes this year (in March, June, September and December), but there is also an opinion that additional increases are possible due to rising inflation. The chances of a fifth rate hike have risen to almost 60%, according to the FedWatch indicator on CME.

Analysts at the investment bank Goldman Sachs predict that the regulator will also begin to reduce bond purchases by $100 billion per month, starting in July. This process is expected to last 2–2.5 years and reduce the balance to a fairly high level – $6.1-6.6 trillion.

A two-day meeting of the Fed committee starts on Tuesday, but market participants do not expect any action on the interest rate after this meeting. At the same time, it is possible that the committee will prepare the ground for its increase in March. 

Thus, this will be the first increase in the central bank's base rate since December 2018, which may prevent a sharp jump in inflation in the United States (which has already reached the highest 12-month rate in almost 40 years).