IEA: Global oil demand will return to pre-crisis levels by 2023

According to the annual forecast of the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will grow by 5.2 million b/d in 2021 and return to pre-crisis levels by 2023.

Analysts note that the increase in demand by 5.2 million b/d this year only partially covers the decrease by 8.7 million b/d in the previous year. To date, aviation fuel consumption remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels, which is due to restrictions on international travel and insufficient vaccination of the population. 

At the same time, some analysts are of the opinion that the pandemic may have changed some air transportation schemes forever. Moreover, the demand for automotive fuel (diesel and gasoline) is recovering much faster, and its indicators may return to the previous level in 2022. However, there are risks that remote work, as well as the growth in sales of electric vehicles, will restrain the increase in fuel demand in the near future. 

According to the IEA baseline scenario, global oil demand may reach a maximum level of 104 million b/d in the mid-2030s. At the same time, oil consumption in the United States by 2030 will grow to 17.4 million b/d from 16.4 million b/d in 2020, and by 2050 it will decrease to 13.4 million b/d. The demand for oil in Europe will almost halve in the period from 2020 to 2050 – from 11.9 million b/d to 6.4 million b/d.

The demand for oil in Russia will grow from 3 million b/d to 3.5 million b/d by 2030, and then decrease to 3.1 million b/d by 2050. Demand in the Middle East will grow from 6.7 million b/d in 2020 to 10.2 million b/d in 2050, in the Asia-Pacific region – from 30.8 million b/d to 38.8 million b/d.