According to the review of the world's largest producer of materials for autocatalysts, the British company Johnson Matthey, the palladium market in 2022 may become scarce against the backdrop of a decrease in the output of the metal in South Africa and the risk of disruption in supplies from Russia. The palladium market was already in deficit in 2020 (about 650 koz), but in 2021 the situation has become relatively balanced. Johnson Matthey fears that in the current environment, Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest palladium producer, may not be able to supply all of its products to the market. Due to the uncertainty in this matter, it is very difficult to calculate the total supply in the palladium market. Another major supplier, South Africa, will cut shipments by more than 6% in 2022 compared to 2021, amid depletion of work-in-progress inventories and planned maintenance of processing facilities. Moreover, the situation in Ukraine created significant supply risks due to Russia's status as the world's largest supplier of palladium and a major producer of platinum and rhodium. At the moment, Russia provided about 28% of the total supply of primary and secondary palladium. Experts believe that net demand for palladium will grow by 3% in 2022 to 6.9 million ounces. Demand growth will be constrained by weak car production and cost-cutting programs on the part of metal consumers.
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