Automobilka Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) ve středu oznámila, že ukončí svůj program vodíkových palivových článků a v letošním roce již nebude uvádět na trh vozidla poháněná vodíkem, což vyvolává otázky ohledně budoucnosti dceřiné společnosti Symbio zabývající se vodíkem.
Skupina uvedla, že rozhodnutí bylo způsobeno omezenou dostupností infrastruktury pro doplňování vodíku, vysokými kapitálovými požadavky a potřebou silnějších pobídek pro zákazníky.
„Trh s vodíkem zůstává okrajovým segmentem bez vyhlídek na střednědobou ekonomickou udržitelnost,“ uvedl v prohlášení Jean-Philippe Imparato, provozní ředitel pro rozšířenou Evropu.
Dodavatelé automobilových dílů Michelin (EPA:MICP) a Forvia uvedli, že rozhodnutí Stellantis je překvapivé a bude mít „vážné provozní a finanční důsledky“ pro Symbio, společný podnik, ve kterém Stellantis v roce 2023 získal podíl.
Stellantis je jeho hlavním zákazníkem a představuje téměř 80 % objemu obchodů společnosti Symbio, uvedla společnost Forvia.
„Hlavní obavy společnosti Michelin se týkají dopadu, který to bude mít na zaměstnance společnosti Symbio ve Francii i v zahraničí,“ uvedla společnost Michelin v prohlášení.
Podle svých webových stránek zaměstnává Symbio více než 650 lidí. V roce 2023 otevřela gigatovárnu ve východní Francii a nový závod v Kalifornii.
Stellantis uvedl, že zahájil jednání s akcionáři společnosti Symbio s cílem vyhodnotit současné dopady na trh a zachovat nejlepší zájmy společného podniku v souladu s jejich příslušnými závazky.
Imparato uvedl, že automobilka musela „učinit jasná a odpovědná rozhodnutí, aby zajistila svou konkurenceschopnost a splnila očekávání svých zákazníků v oblasti elektrických a hybridních osobních a lehkých užitkových vozidel“.
The US president announced on his Truth Social account a temporary suspension of planned large-scale strikes on Iran. He said the pause was requested by Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries. The main conditions of any deal remain the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of the nuclear threat. However, the Iranian side quickly denied any agreements with the US via state agency Fars News, calling the reports false. Tehran emphasised that the Strait of Hormuz remains completely closed to any vessels that have not coordinated their passage with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Against this backdrop, the Kuwaiti military officially confirmed serious damage to key military facilities caused by recent Iranian strikes. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia held emergency talks with Donald Trump, expressing deep concern about US plans to strike Iranian energy infrastructure in response to attacks on a base in Jordan. Riyadh, together with Qatar, the UAE, Turkey, and Pakistan, is actively pursuing de-escalation, and Qatari and Omani mediators have met with US special envoy Steve Whitkoff and Iranian diplomat Araghchi. The US president himself reiterated his readiness to use military power on a scale unseen since World War II and to bomb refineries and power plants.
However, Trump said he agreed to postpone the operation temporarily to give Tehran a chance to sign a peace agreement. That did not prevent US embassies from issuing emergency advisories urging their citizens to refrain from travel in the region and to prepare for an urgent evacuation due to the risk of uncontrolled escalation. They described the Iranian regime's actions as highly unpredictable, pointing to sudden missile strikes on territories not previously targeted by military attacks, including facilities in Egypt.
It is no secret that Donald Trump and his party need an end to the war with Iran just as much as the Gulf states do. High oil prices have caused the sharpest inflation surge in the US in half a century. The price index (GDP deflator) rose by 1.53% in Q2. This is the highest reading since the inflation shock of mid-2022 — and it should be noted that inflation was already very high over the preceding three quarters (Q1 2026 – 0.89%, Q4 2025 – 0.91%, Q3 2025 – 0.93%). On average, it was 0.91% per quarter in the nine months before the anomalous inflation spike. Price increases are broad-based across all categories:
Thus, the problem is not just acute but extremely severe. Historically, the Fed has tightened policy aggressively at these levels of the GDP price index. But now the US regulator will likely be able to take that step only in September.
Nevertheless, according to a CFTC report, large speculators, including hedge funds and asset managers, increased their net long position in the US dollar by 13.5% over the week. As of July 28, the volume of bullish bets on the dollar reached $49.23 billion (vs. $43.3 billion previously), an absolute record since 2014.
Institutional investors have held a net long dollar position for 20 consecutive weeks, fully reversing the trend that prevailed before the Iran conflict, when short positions totalling $22 billion dominated the market. However, in the following three days (July 29–31) the dollar weakened noticeably against major currencies despite record speculative positions. At the same time, large capital continued to increase selling against the euro and the Japanese yen, and the net short position on the Canadian dollar hit a two-year record.
US stock indices closed higher on Friday thanks to a surge in key tech giants:
The main driver of optimism was Amazon, which jumped 15.3% on rapid expansion of its cloud business. The rally among software providers and hyperscalers lifted Alphabet (+6.7%), Microsoft (+3.0%) and Meta (+3.3%), offsetting a sharp drop in Apple (-7.3%) amid chip shortages and rising production costs. At the same time, ExxonMobil's market cap fell 1.0% due to refinery capacity constraints that prevented the oil giant from fully converting high oil prices into maximal profits.
Paradoxically, July 2026 ended with the Nasdaq Composite down 3.2% to 25,373.85 — its worst monthly performance in 20 years. The main source of pressure was the catastrophic collapse in semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index plunged 20% (the largest fall since 2008), dragging down:
The sector's rout triggered margin calls and forced asset liquidations at Situational Awareness, managed by Leopold Ashenbrenner — its leveraged portfolio shrank from $45 billion to $10 billion, and some holdings were bought by Ken Griffin's Citadel. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 lost a symbolic 0.1% for the month (7,489.8 points), and the Dow Jones rose 0.3% (52,485.74 points). Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group warn of seasonal weakness risks: August and September are traditionally the most challenging months for the stock market. The key question for investors is whether the local rebalancing in the AI sector will develop into a long-term reversal.
US earnings calendar: 3 August (Monday)
4 August (Tuesday)
02:00 / Australia / S&P Global manufacturing PMI for July / prev.: 50.7 / actual: 51.5 / forecast: 51.7 / AUD/USD – up
The S&P Global Australia manufacturing PMI for July rose to 51.7, hitting the highest level since the start of the year. Inflow of new orders resumed for the first time in five months thanks to solid domestic demand and an expanding customer base. Hiring reached its strongest pace since April. Exporters, however, continue to struggle amid weak external conditions. Falling input-cost inflation allowed manufacturers to slow the rise in output prices. Overall business optimism remains cautiously constrained. A confirmed rise above expectations would confirm a recovery in industrial activity and provide solid support for the Australian dollar.
02:30 / Japan / S&P Global manufacturing PMI for July / prev.: 54.9 / actual: 54.8 / forecast: 54.7 / USD/JPY – up
Japan's manufacturing PMI for July is expected at 54.7, keeping the sector in expansion for a seventh consecutive month. Output and new orders showed the best growth rates in years, prompting companies to step up commodity purchases and, for the first time in two years, increase finished-goods inventories. The picture is complemented by faster hiring, easing price pressures and business optimism reaching a four-month high amid explosive demand for AI solutions and semiconductors. The July reading implies some moderation in the sector's resilience, which will increase yen volatility.
04:45 / China / manufacturing PMI for June / prev.: 52.2 / actual: 51.7 / forecast: 51.5 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up
RatingDog's China manufacturing PMI for June edged down to 51.7, marking the end of the best quarter since late 2020. New orders have risen for the thirteenth consecutive month, driven by domestic demand, while export sales are contracting. Against a backdrop of stable output:
However, sentiment slipped to a five-month low, indicating continued caution among entrepreneurs. A reading above forecasts would signal stability in Chinese manufacturing, which would push Brent oil prices higher and strengthen the Chinese yuan; a reading below expectations would have the opposite effect.
09:00 / Germany / Retail sales growth for May / prev.: -0.6% / actual: 1.8% / forecast: -0.7% / EUR/USD – down
German retail sales in May showed an impressive year-on-year rise of 1.8%. The indicator sharply recovered after April's decline, posting the strongest consumer-sector momentum since the start of the year. Confirmation of market expectations signals a return of consumer activity from stagnation. If this trend persists, the euro could weaken.
10:30 / Germany / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 50.1 / actual: 50.3 / forecast: 52.2 / EUR/USD – up
Germany's July manufacturing PMI is expected at 52.2 — the best level in four months. Production rose at the fastest pace since early 2022 thanks to a revival in domestic and foreign orders. Export demand saw its strongest increase in 2.5 years. Confidence was further supported by slowing inflation in:
A beat of expectations would confirm a strong industrial upswing and provide a powerful boost to the euro.
11:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 51.4 / forecast: 52.0 / EUR/USD – up
S&P Global's eurozone manufacturing PMI slipped by 0.2% in June. Nevertheless, production capacity in the bloc has expanded at record rates since spring 2022. Stabilized supply chains allowed factories for the first time in 3.5 years to rebuild commodity inventories, although workforce optimisation continues. Cost pressures eased noticeably, adding optimism among manufacturers. A rise toward expectations would signal an acceleration of regional economic momentum and create favorable conditions for a stronger euro.
11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 53.9 / actual: 52.5 / forecast: 52.8 / GBP/USD – up
The UK manufacturing PMI for July is expected at 52.8. Forecasts point to a fourth consecutive month of production growth driven by:
Work-in-progress rose, and employment saw modest gains for the first time in a while. A decline in plastics and oil-product prices and easing logistical disruptions were additional positives. A stronger PMI would confirm UK industrial resilience and support the pound.
16:45 / US / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (flash) for July / prev.: 55.1 / actual: 53.9 / forecast: 54.8 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
The preliminary S&P Global US manufacturing PMI for July may continue to rise to 53.8. Despite remaining near multi-year highs, the indicator is pressured by:
Logistical delays caused by the Middle East conflict are also a constraint. Still, renewed factory hiring could prevent a drop and even support further gains. Such dynamics would support the US dollar.
17:00 / US / ISM manufacturing PMI for July / prev.: 54.0 / actual: 53.3 / forecast: 54.0 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
The ISM manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 53.3 in June. The slowdown was driven by weaker new orders and lower production volumes. Employment remains in contraction territory, although layoffs have eased slightly. The prices index fell from 82.1 to 73.0, easing commodity cost pressure. Businesses remain worried about high rates, Middle East geopolitics and tariff uncertainty. A return to 54.0 in July as forecast would strengthen the dollar.
17:00 / US / ISM manufacturing employment index for July / prev.: 48.6 / actual: 49.7 / forecast: 49.8 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
The ISM manufacturing employment subindex for June adjusted to 49.7, showing the weakest pace of job losses in the past 15 months. Although the subindex remains below the 50 expansion threshold, it signals a recovery in factories' staffing capacity. An anticipated rise would indicate stabilising hiring conditions in the industrial sector and give the US dollar room to strengthen.
4 August
04:30 / Australia / Household spending for June / prev.: 5.1% / actual: 5.5% / forecast: 5.2% / AUD/USD – up Year-on-year household spending in Australia (reported for May) rose 5.5%, continuing a steady acceleration after a revised April reading. The reading is above long-run historical norms, confirming resilient domestic retail demand. However, the June release may point to a slowdown in consumption, which would weigh on the Australian dollar.
15:30 / Canada / Goods exports for June / prev.: CAD 76.4bn / actual: CAD 77.1bn / forecast: CAD 75.0bn / USD/CAD – up
Canadian goods exports in May rose 0.9% month-on-month to a record CAD 77.1bn. A fourth consecutive month of gains was supported by:
15:30 / Canada / Goods imports for June / prev.: CAD 73.01bn / actual: CAD 72.86bn / forecast: CAD 73.20bn / USD/CAD – up
Canada's goods imports in May edged down 0.2% from April's peak. The drop was driven mainly by a sharp fall in purchases of precious metals, ferrous metallurgy and scrap, only partly offset by higher consumer goods imports including Chinese batteries. If June shows a renewed rise, it would signal growing external purchases and erode the trade surplus, a dynamic that would weigh on the Canadian dollar.
15:30 / US / Goods exports for June / prev.: USD 328.2bn / actual: USD 317.7bn / forecast: USD 312.0bn / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down
US goods exports rose in May, but the June report is expected to bring an unpleasant surprise. The decline hit shipments of industrial commodities such as:
15:30 / US / Goods imports for June / prev.: USD 382.8bn / actual: USD 395.3bn / forecast: USD 385.0bn / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down
US imports of goods and services in May rose 3.3% to the highest levels since spring 2025. The main contributors were:
16:30 / Canada / S&P Global manufacturing PMI for July / prev.: 52.9 / actual: 53.0 / forecast: 53.2 / USD/CAD – down
Canada's manufacturing PMI for June came in at 53.0, remaining firmly in expansion. Higher output and rising domestic orders led companies to hire at the fastest pace since autumn 2024, despite the first export decline in three months.
17:00 / US / JOLTS job openings for June / prev.: 7.585m / actual: 7.594m / forecast: 7.450m / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down
Job openings in the US rose to 7.594m in May, a two-year high and well above forecasts. The labor market showed strong resilience despite the energy shock from the Middle East conflict. The main increases in hiring demand were in:
17:00 / US / Factory orders (m/m) for June / prev.: 5.3% / actual: -1.3% / forecast: 0.2% / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
Factory orders fell by 1.3% in May month-on-month. The key negative was a 51.8% collapse in non-defence aircraft contracts, dragging down durables overall. The underlying picture remains constructive: excluding the volatile transport sector, orders rose 1.9% thanks to demand in:
17:00 / US / JOLTS voluntary quits for June / prev.: 3.043m / actual: 3.065m / forecast: 3.050m / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
Voluntary quits in the US rose slightly to 3.065m in May. The quits rate held at 1.9%, the lowest since 2020. Turnover was highest in:
17:00 / US / RealClearMarkets/TIPP economic optimism index for August / prev.: 42.5 / actual: 45.5 / forecast: 47.5 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
The RealClearMarkets/TIPP economic optimism index jumped to 45.5 in July, beating expectations. Americans showed improved confidence across components, including six-month economic prospects and assessment of government policy. The only strongly positive subindex remains personal financial expectations at 52.2. A further rise in August would bolster household confidence and support the dollar.
23:30 / US / API crude oil stocks / prev.: 2.603m bbl / actual: 3.296m bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile
US commercial crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.296m barrels for the week, beating expectations of a draw. Against the backdrop of rising gasoline stocks, US crude production fell to 13.8m b/d, and strategic reserve withdrawals continued. A strong build in commercial stocks will ease fears of shortages on the market and increase Brent volatility.
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