US stock exchanges were closed for Presidents' Day, but futures remained active. Nasdaq futures slipped, while Dow Jones futures showed modest gains — a mixed picture that reflects ongoing caution on tech and relatively firmer positioning in more traditional sectors.
The dominant theme for market participants remains the Fed's policy outlook. Investors continue to price the odds of rate adjustments against a backdrop of cooling inflation and mixed macro signals. Geopolitical developments are adding further pressure on sentiment, boosting demand for safe-haven assets, and increasing futures volatility.
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Market attention is gradually shifting toward consumer activity and the health of the US economy. In focus this week are Walmart's upcoming results, which could serve as a barometer for demand in mass retail. At the same time, investors are preparing for Q4 GDP figures that could force a reassessment of growth expectations for the world's largest economy.
The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting will also attract intense scrutiny. Their tone could clarify the Fed's inclination on rates. If incoming data confirms a slowdown in activity or renewed inflationary pressure, volatility in equity and FX markets could spike, creating tactical opportunities for active traders, including via instruments offered by InstaForex.
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Goldman Sachs analysts have published a review of AI's impact on S&P 500 companies. About 80% of issuers beat earnings expectations, a key argument for corporate resilience. Management commentary increasingly points to AI adoption and digitalization as contributors to financial performance and outlooks.
JP Morgan strategists share that cautious optimism, noting upside potential for equities if corporate profits keep rising. Still, forecasts remain sensitive to rates and macro prints, so index reactions to earnings and company statements can be sharp and short-lived.
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Uncertainty remains elevated in the US stock market, and it is visible in technicals. A doji has formed on the S&P 500 daily chart — a pattern that signals indecision between buyers and sellers and can precede a change of direction. Such signs matter most near all-time highs, where the market is vulnerable to negative triggers.
A break of key support levels could accelerate selling and deepen corrective sentiment. Conversely, holding the range and resuming the advance would confirm the strength of bulls. For traders, the current setup calls for heightened attention to levels and volume, as these will dictate the short-term direction of the indices.
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