Economic results of March 2025: inflation and challenges of global markets

March 2025 has kept global markets tense, with inflationary pressures in the United States and a slowdown in European economic recovery remaining key factors.

USA: Inflation and the Fed's tight policy

Investors' focus was on the February PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index, which grew by 0.4% over the month and 2.8% year-on-year. This strengthened the Fed's position in maintaining a high interest rate at least until the summer.

Citizens' inflation expectations reached 4.9% for the year, the highest in several months.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 57.0 due to fears of new tariffs and instability in the labor market.

Europe: Debt risks and stagnation

In the eurozone, March data confirmed a low level of consumer confidence amid geopolitical conflicts and the high cost of living. Bank of America noted the risks of debt instability: the yield on government bonds in the EU has reached a 15-year low, which calls into question the sustainability of growth.

The UK's GDP grew by 0.2–0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, but weak domestic demand remains a threat of recession.

Asia and commodity markets

China is showing a stabilization of industrial production, but weak consumer demand is limiting the economic recovery.

Oil prices have been declining for the second month in a row due to increased production in the United States (Baker Hughes data) and reduced consumption in Europe.