Why has the oil market been excessively volatile lately?

In light of recent events in the Middle East, the instability of oil prices threatens market forecasts, allowing the Fed to continue to adhere to a strict monetary policy.

The latest rise in oil prices is due to concerns about the involvement of Iran and Saudi Arabia in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. 

This month, prices have fallen below $90 per barrel. The war between Israel and Hamas has become the latest factor in the already unstable oil market. However, it is worth noting that even without the impact of this conflict, since the beginning of the year, the oil market has experienced strong fluctuations due to inflationary trends and a possible global recession. 

The recent increase in prices for «black gold» has also been caused by a reduction in production, including the decision of Russia and Saudi Arabia to reduce production in order to combat price distortions in the oil market. In particular, North American WTI oil reached $95 per barrel, and the Brent grade approached $ 100. 

Analysts note that too high oil prices are a bad sign, as they indicate an increase in prices for almost all goods and may spread to other areas of the economy. 

The «jumps» in the oil market did not end there: last week WTI fell by 11% from the last high to $84.57 per barrel. The quotes were pressured by the news that Russia may lift the ban on the export of diesel fuel, as well as data from the Ministry of Energy, signaling a weakening in demand for gasoline.