Economists' forecasts for 2024 are becoming increasingly gloomy

Experts predict that the continued persistence of high interest rates in major world economies may lead to a slowdown in global economic growth next year. At the same time, it is expected that the growth rate in 2023 will exceed the expectations of economists. 

According to the consulting company Consensus Economics, global production is expected to grow by only 2.1% in 2024, compared with 2.4% this year. Economists raised their forecasts for the current year by 1 percentage point due to unexpectedly strong demand and labor market indicators.

The expected decline in growth rates in 2024 is partly explained by «some basic arithmetic effects» – an increase in production this year and an expected smoothing of growth next year. And in general, experts have become more pessimistic about the prospects for 2024.

One of the main factors of the slowdown in growth is the persistence of high inflation, which can lead to a prolonged retention of high interest rates in developed countries. This, in turn, means that global economic growth will slow down, as high rates can keep investment and consumer demand at a low level.

It is important to note that the United States, the European Union and other developed economies may hold high rates longer to fight inflation, which could affect the global economy. 

The economies of developing countries may also face challenges related to this situation, but some of them will continue to grow due to stable domestic demand and other factors.