Macroeconomic events of the day | August 26

On Friday, all the attention of the markets is focused on the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole. It is expected that the regulator will confirm its intention to curb inflation, but will not announce the details of its next steps. Many expect an interest rate increase of another 0.75 percentage points in September, while others expect a smaller increase, by half a point.

Powell's speech will take place after the publication of a block of economic data, including on the PCE index, as well as on the expenses and incomes of Americans. 

PCE Index

The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), the Fed's most preferred inflation indicator, will be published at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the underlying PCE to increase by 4.7% compared to last year and by 0.3% compared to the previous month.

Expenses and incomes of Americans

At the same time (12:30), statistics on personal expenses and incomes of Americans will be published. Personal expenses are projected to grow by 0.4% and personal income by 0.6%. 

It is noted that middle- and low-income households feel disadvantaged due to rising prices for all basic goods, so they are forced to reduce their expenses. At the same time, retailers are lowering prices to get rid of inventory in preparation for the holiday season.

Powell's performance at Jackson Hole

Despite general expectations, the speech of the head of the Fed is unlikely to bring any specifics to the market. Moreover, before the regulator announces its next decision on the rate, several more important economic data will be published, including inflation and the employment report.